Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.333052 2.471261 2.621650 2.799109 3.005080 3.239643 3.531655
2025-08-03 2.196323 2.367605 2.561718 2.802007 3.097658 3.458882 3.950512
2025-08-10 2.062434 2.243744 2.453717 2.720607 3.060256 3.493479 4.118759
2025-08-17 1.988679 2.180241 2.406205 2.700128 3.085710 3.597756 4.381155
2025-08-24 1.930994 2.129746 2.367611 2.682801 3.106774 3.689562 4.629365
2025-08-31 1.884460 2.088642 2.335934 2.668744 3.126128 3.774301 4.871841
2025-09-07 1.859422 2.071423 2.331411 2.687133 3.187541 3.921333 5.237490
2025-09-14 1.792424 1.998678 2.252206 2.600173 3.091855 3.817663 5.134669
2025-09-21 1.763519 1.972282 2.230777 2.589064 3.102565 3.877038 5.337227
2025-09-28 1.722970 1.929539 2.186175 2.543499 3.059014 3.844457 5.353129
2025-10-05 1.725327 1.940781 2.211425 2.593986 3.158367 4.048916 5.877692
2025-10-12 1.736981 1.963666 2.251995 2.666690 3.294752 4.329062 6.647777
2025-10-19 1.718944 1.948438 2.242296 2.668936 3.324530 4.430809 7.047069
2025-10-26 1.703148 1.935308 2.234442 2.672610 3.355317 4.535119 7.483062
2025-11-02 1.660473 1.885865 2.175907 2.599986 3.258855 4.391835 7.189903
2025-11-09 1.639933 1.864958 2.155482 2.582263 3.250251 4.413783 7.376602
2025-11-16 1.621618 1.846434 2.137610 2.567296 3.244695 4.439682 7.578645
2025-11-23 1.605374 1.830182 2.122257 2.555212 3.242675 4.471012 7.803353
2025-11-30 1.600669 1.828857 2.126999 2.572573 3.289447 4.601262 8.391542
2025-12-07 1.562423 1.782371 2.068605 2.493915 3.171831 4.391477 7.759663
2025-12-14 1.549622 1.769523 2.056418 2.484276 3.170292 4.417798 7.961794
2025-12-21 1.526148 1.742135 2.023684 2.443049 3.114107 4.329983 7.750807
2025-12-28 1.534275 1.756805 2.049171 2.489667 3.207806 4.554545 8.723475